This is applicable to all euro stocks, eurusd, eurjpy, eurcad, eugbp and every other euro pairs.

The unemployment rate in the euro area is expected to exhibit a slight hump-shaped profile. Responding to weak economic activity with a lag, it is projected to increase to 6.7% in April 2024 and subsequently decrease to 6.6% in both 2025 and 2026. This revision reflects a 0.1 percentage point increase for 2024 and 2025, and a 0.2 percentage point increase for 2026 compared to previous projections.

For further context, let’s take a look at the macroeconomic projections for the euro area in March 2024:

• Real GDP Growth: The annual average real GDP growth is expected to be 0.6% in 2024, gradually strengthening to 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The outlook for GDP growth has been revised down for 2024 due to carry-over effects from past negative data surprises and weaker incoming forward-looking information.
• Inflation: Annual average headline HICP inflation is projected to decrease from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.3% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. The weak outlook for energy inflation is expected to keep headline inflation below HICP inflation excluding energy and food throughout the projection horizon.

For our members euro unemployment rate today is a sell for euro dominant pairs and a buy for euro stocks.

Risk according to your appetite and don’t forget to rate us.

In summary, while the euro area faces economic challenges, there are expectations for gradual recovery and moderation in inflation over the projection period¹. For more detailed information, you can refer to the ECB staff macroeconomic projections and the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters.